Hydrogen at $110B+: Natural Hydrogen Breakthrough & Why Projects Are Failing

In this episode of The Hydrogen Podcast, we unpack three major hydrogen headlines shaping the global energy sector:

💰 Record Investments

• Over $110 billion committed across 500+ hydrogen projects
• $35 billion growth in just one year
• 50% annual growth since 2020, but only for projects with real economics & policy support

🌍 Geo-Hydrogen Discovery

• Massive hydrogen reservoir discovered near the ancient Mussau Trench
• Hundreds of hydrothermal “Kunlun pipes” up to 1,800m wide
• Suggests hydrogen reserves exist far from tectonic boundaries
• Could reshape future energy economics & supply security

🚫 Strategic Exits

• BP, Origin Energy, Air Products pull out of costly or unsupported projects
• Nearly 6 million tonnes/year of cancelled hydrogen capacity
• Lessons: demand certainty, strong offtake agreements, and viable economics are non-negotiable

⚖️ Key Takeaway
Hydrogen is moving beyond hype into disciplined growth. The winners will be projects with solid business models, demand alignment, and resilient technology.

Transcript

Today, we unpack three major stories shaping the global hydrogen conversation: record-setting investment numbers, groundbreaking geo-hydrogen discoveries, and strategic exits from unviable regional projects. As always, we’ll stay rooted in solid economics and technical feasibility—because in energy, numbers and business cases matter as much as vision. Let’s dig into the headlines, the tech, and what’s next for hydrogen.

The clean hydrogen sector has reached a significant milestone, reporting over $110 billion in committed investments across more than 500 projects that have advanced past final investment decision, moved into construction, or are already operational. That’s a $35 billion increase in just one year, a testament to the sector’s rapid momentum. Since 2020, the industry has seen an average annual growth rate of 50% in committed investments, fueled by policy incentives, industrial demand, and expanding global collaboration. 

But this investment boom is accompanied by a “natural attrition” process. Among over 1,700 announced hydrogen projects since 2020—a 7.5-fold increase—about 50 projects have been publicly cancelled in the past 18 months, mostly early-stage renewable ventures representing roughly 3% of the overall pipeline. Persistently high interest rates, slower-than-promised policy implementation, and shifting economics have sidelined weaker business cases and forced the industry to mature rapidly. 

On the supply side, total committed capacity now exceeds 6 million tonnes/year, including about 1 million already operational. Analysts project the current pipeline can support between 9 and 14 million tonnes of clean hydrogen by 2030—but only if demand materializes at scale. Today, roughly 3.6 million tonnes of binding offtake agreements have been secured, with policy clarity in markets like the EU, US, Japan, and Korea possibly supporting up to 8 million tonnes of clean hydrogen demand by 2030. 

The takeaway: While the investment flood is impressive, it is increasingly selective. Projects with strong economics, robust demand, and policy backing are rising to the top, while “nice to have” ideas buckle under market discipline. Industry leaders stress that to convert investment into real-world impact, clearer demand signals, binding offtake agreements, and deep business-government collaboration are urgently needed.

The second headline is a scientific breakthrough with seismic implications for hydrogen’s future. Researchers have identified a vast geo-hydrogen reservoir west of the ancient Mussau Trench—a region previously overlooked by exploration, as most known hydrogen vents cluster near active plate boundaries or faults. Using seismic monitoring, geochemical surveys, and structural analyses, scientists found hundreds of hydrothermal pipes (“Kunlun pipe swarm”) ranging from 450 to 1,800 meters in diameter, which dwarf previously documented hydrogen features. 

This colossal geo-hydrogen field suggests the possibility of hydrogen formation, migration, and long-term preservation in mature, tectonically stable geological settings—radically expanding the range of economically viable hydrogen deposits. Seismic monitoring over a 150-kilometer transect revealed ongoing hydrogen and volatile gas leakage, with isotopic evidence showing a mix of atmospheric and deep geological contributions. 

Importantly, this site is not directly above an active plate margin. Instead, it demonstrates that hydrogen vents—and the massive subsurface reservoirs they supply—can form and endure far from volcanoes, transform faults, and spreading ridges. The detailed morphology, repetitive crater-like pockmarks, and brecciated pipe fill all point to episodic explosive events, with total energy releases modeled in the millions-of-tons-of-TNT range. Such power implies a direct connection to mantle processes.

What does this mean for the hydrogen economy? First, Earth may host much larger, more accessible natural hydrogen reserves than previously thought. If these can be tapped economically and sustainably, they could supply industrial-scale hydrogen without relying solely on electrolysis or fossil reforming—potentially upending both economics and energy policy worldwide. The challenge ahead: mapping, quantifying, and proving the consistent extractability, purity, and safety of these resources at commercial scale.

While investment headlines grab attention, quietly, some of the largest energy companies and hydrogen developers are pulling out of regional markets—especially where economics and policy support have not materialized. BP, Origin Energy, and Air Products, among others, have abandoned sizeable ventures across Australia, the United States, and Europe, citing rising costs, technical uncertainty, community opposition, and strategic refocusing on core oil, gas, or mature hydrogen businesses. 

Reasons for exits are multifaceted. High interest rates have increased the cost of capital; subsidy shortfalls and complicated regulatory frameworks have stalled projects; and, in the U.S. Midwest and Pacific Northwest, strong local resistance to CO₂ storage and injection infrastructure has added risk for blue hydrogen projects. Even government-backed initiatives, like the Indiana blue hydrogen hub, are susceptible to cost shocks, policy changes, and opposition over environmental impacts.

The sector-wide shakeout amounts to nearly 6 million tonnes per year of abandoned hydrogen capacity in the past year, according to market trackers. Strategic pivots cause companies to abandon 48% of overall cancelled output, shifting back to traditional energy or proven lower-risk electrolyzer investments. This sobering reality is not a sign of hydrogen’s demise, but an industry resetting toward viable niches—green ammonia, synthetic fuels, industrial clusters, and projects with clear captive demand and strong business cases. 

The lesson for developers and policymakers: only economically grounded hydrogen deployments, with solid customer buy-in and realistic technical pathways, will survive the global race toward clean energy. Hype has yielded to discipline—and only resilient, flexible approaches will deliver enduring value.

Today’s headlines tell a fascinating but clear story: hydrogen is rapidly shedding its hype-driven excesses, maturing into an industry where massive investment, scientific innovation, and market discipline converge. The leap past $110 billion in committed projects proves that global faith in hydrogen remains strong—if economics and technical realities are respected. Geo-hydrogen reserves promise a new, potentially transformative resource for future production. Strategic exits—from energy majors and developers—underscore the importance of business fundamentals and adaptive strategies.

In every case, today’s hydrogen economy is being built by those who balance optimism with data, business with technology, and ambition with economic sense. For investors, engineers, and energy leaders, this is the moment to refine the model, lock in offtake, and focus on what truly works.

Alright, that’s it for me, everyone.  If you have a second, I would really appreciate it if you could leave a good review on whatever platform you listen to. Apple podcasts, Spotify, Google, YouTube, etc. That would be a tremendous help to the show. And as always if you ever have any feedback, you are welcome to email me directly at info@thehydrogepodcast.com. So until next time, keep your eyes up and honor one another.